Zona del euro técnicamente no está en recesión

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La zona del euro se estancó en T1 (0.0% intertrimestral), un resultado mejor al esperado. En términos intertrimestrales (ajustado por estacionalidad), Alemania creció, Francia se estancó, y España e Italia cayeron. En términos interanuales, estos cuatro países y la zona se desaceleraron o decrecieron más rápido. Grecia cayó menos rápido que en T4, y Rusia más rápido (Eurostat, Rosstat).

Técnicamente, una recesión se define por dos o más caídas intertrimestrales consecutivas. Presentamos a continuación más detalles sobre las estimaciones de PIB de la zona del euro. Ordenamos los países por tamaño y ponemos de rojo a los que están en recesión.

Variación intertrimestral (cifras desestacionalizadas):

• Alemania: 0.5 intertrimestral (vs -0.2 en T4).
• Francia: 0.0 (0.1 en T4)
• Italia: –0.8 (–0.7 en T4).
• España: –0.3 (igual que T4).
• Países Bajos (cifras ajustadas por días laborales pero no estacionalidad): –0.2 (–0.7 en T4).
• Austria (componente de tendencia): 0.2 (0.0 en T4).
• Portugal: –0.1 (–1.3 en T4).

Variación % interanual (cifras originales):

• Alemania: 1.2 (2.0 en T4).
• Francia: 0.3 (1.2 en T4).
• Italia: –1.3 (–0.4 en T4).
• España: –0.4 (0.3 en T4).
• Países Bajos: –1.3 (–0.1 en T4).
• Austria: 0.7 (1.4 en T4).
• Portugal: –2.2 (–2.9 en T4).
• Grecia: –6.2 (–7.5 en T4). Grecia no publica cifras desestacionalizadas. Nótese que su plan de rescate supone que caerá “sólo” 4.8% este año.

 No hubo estimaciones flash para Irlanda, Luxemburgo, Malta ni Eslovenia.

Rusia no está en la Unión Europea pero también publicó su primera estimación de PIB: 4.9% interanual, desde 4.8% en T4 (todavía no publica cifras desestacionalizadas).

La segunda estimación de Eurostat se publicará el 6 de junio.

En 2011, la economía de Alemania correspondía a 27% de la economía de la zona del euro. (Sumando a Francia, el peso conjunto es de 48%; sumando a Italia y España, el peso conjunto es 77% de la zona.)

Grecia pagará a acreedores bonos

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Grecia decidió llevar a cabo el pago de los 430 MMn de euros que hoy se debían a aquellos acreedores privados que en marzo se negaron a participar en la restructuración de deuda (Reuters). Estos acreedores no habían podido ser obligados a participar en el traspaso de bonos por otros de mucho menor valor, porque sus bonos habían sido emitidos bajo leyes internacionales, y no bajo las leyes griegas que se cambiaron retroactivamente.

In an about-face, Greece opted to pay holders of 430 million euros ($552 million) of a May 15 bond, despite having told those who took its bond swap offer in March that they would otherwise get nothing, government officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

The decision averts litigation by the bondholders, and will infuriate the 96.9 percent of creditors, mainly European banks, who agreed to take the deal.

Nearly all bondholders agreed to suffer a loss of 75 percent after being told they had no choice. A few held out, however, demanding to be paid in full. That left about 6 billion worth of bonds that the Greek government must now decide how to handle.

There was no official announcement on paying the bond or what Greece would do for remaining holdouts. No reason was given for repaying the bond.

Tensión entre líderes de ZE sobre Grecia

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En su reunión de ayer, el Eurogrupo discutió diversos temas sin hacer ninguna declaración significativa (Consejo de la UE). Pero Charlemagne (The Economist) observó tensiones entre los ministros de finanzas, sobre todo en lo tocante a Grecia, y notó que el presidente del Eurogrupo, Jean-Claude Juncker, reiteró enérgicamente que no se está considerando una salida de Grecia de la unión monetaria, y le molestó que otros hayan dicho o sugerido lo contrario.

Consejo:

The ministers confirmed that the current consolidation strategy undertaken will be pursued further. “It will continue to be the cornerstone of our strategy to correct our fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances, overcome the crisis and return to a sustainable growth path”, said Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the Eurogroup and the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, adding that “there is no contradiction between the fiscal consolidation and growth-oriented policies. To the contrary, they are mutually reinforcing”.

“The Eurogroup looks forward to the swift formation of the new Greek government that will take ownership of the programme and that has a sufficient parliamentary majority to implement fully the agreed policy conditionality”, said Mr Juncker.

The Eurogroup President confirmed that the member states are determined to provide the further financial assistance needed, adding that “continued fiscal and structural reforms are Greece’s best guarantees to a more prosperous future in the euro area”. The next disbursement of 1 billion euros to Greece is scheduled before the end of June.

Charlemagne citó parte de la conferencia de prensa de Juncker:

I made it perfectly clear that nobody was mentioning an exit of Greece from the euro area. I am strongly against. We are 17 member-states being co-owners of our common currency. I don’t envisage, not even for one second, Greece leaving the euro area. This is nonsense, this is propaganda.

We have to respect Greek democracy. I’m against this way of dealing with Greece, [which consists] in provoking the Greek public opinion and giving advice and indications to the Greek sovereign. Greece has voted, we have to take into account the result. We do hope that a government will be formed in the next coming days or weeks and then we have to deal with that government. We don’t have to lecture Greece.

But the Greek public, the Greek citizens, have to know that we agreed on a programme and this programme has to be implemented. But I don’t like the way of dealing with Greece, those that are threatening Greece day after day. This is not the way of dealing with partners, colleagues and friends and citizens in the European Union.

Habrá elecciones en Grecia

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

El último intento por parte del presidente Papoulias por formar un gobierno, aunque fuera otro gobierno tecnócrata interino, fracasó, y no parece haber otra opción más que convocar a nuevas elecciones en junio (Kathimerini).

Greece is heading to new general elections after a last-ditch effort by Greek President Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday to form a government came to an impasse with the leaders of the five parties elected to Parliament (barring the Communist Party and Chrysi Avgi) failing to reach an agreement.

The breakdown of talks for a unity government or for an administration composed of non-political individuals following a fragmented result from general elections on May 6, means that Greece will have to appoint a caretaker administration until a date is set for a new round of elections.

The five parties are split into two distinct but disparate camps, with New Democracy and PASOK insisting that Greece needs to conform to the terms of the bailout deal signed with its lenders, and SYRIZA and Independent Greeks — from opposite sides of the political spectrum — proposing a complete abolition of the memorandum despite fears that such a move could lead to Greece’s ouster from the euro area. Democratic Left has said that it will support any coalition of the two sides that ensures Greece’s position in the eurozone with better lending terms.

Expectativas de consumidores ancladas en EE UU

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En la encuesta a consumidores de mayo de U. Michigan (datos preliminares), las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo subieron ligeramente a 3.0% (vs 2.9% en abril) y han estado entre 2.9 y 3.0% desde febrero (Thomson Reuters vía JP Morgan).

La inflación de precios al mayoreo en India mantiene su tendencia alrededor de 7.3%

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

La inflación de India se aceleró a 7.2% en abril, después de haberse desacelerado a 6.9% en marzo. La tasa de inflación ha oscilado entre 6.9% y 7.7% desde diciembre sin tener ninguna tendencia evidente. En esta ocasión, la mayor presión viene de frutas y verduras (19.0%). (Mospi).

Cómo Grecia dejaría la zona del euro (The Guardian)

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Todos los escenarios de TransEconomics todavía suponen (aunque con menos fe que antes) que Grecia no se saldrá de la unión monetaria durante el horizonte de proyección: 2012–2013. Eso no significa, sin embargo, que no estemos leyendo y pensando seriamente sobre las consecuencias de un posible Grexit. A continuación presentamos pasajes de Julia Kollewe en The Guardian, quien describe cinco etapas de una salida de Grecia. La primera etapa, parálisis electoral, ya ocurrió.

1. Parálisis electoral:

The political deadlock has triggered repeated warnings from European leaders that Greece could be thrown out of the euro if it does not stick to the spending cuts and economic reforms stipulated for the bailout – the only thing that that keeps Athens from a messy bankruptcy, which would mean a halt to paying government workers and pensioners.

2. Se acaba el dinero:

… Or what if a government is formed that does not adhere to the strict bailout conditions?

The “troika” – the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank – would probably turn off the taps and bailout money would stop flowing to the highly indebted country. At the same time, Greek banks would probably be cut off from the liquidity provided by the ECB.

…Christian Schultz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, says last week’s €4.2bn payment could be the last injection of bailout money and a run on its banks would become likely.

“If Greece continues to redeem bonds, and pay interest, it could run out of cash by July,” he says. “After that, the government would be unable to make full euro payments to pensioners and public employees. It may instead make these payments in promissory notes, which could form the nucleus of a new currency. Greece would face financial infarction: the country’s banks would face a bank run.”

3. Nueva moneda, nuevos bancos:

To counteract a run on its banks after a debt default, a new Greek government would have to freeze bank accounts and introduce capital controls to prevent the country’s citizens from moving money abroad.

… The government would also have to pass a currency law and start up the banknote-printing machines… To minimise the likely chaos that would ensue, the Greek government would probably choose to reintroduce the drachma over a weekend.

Because the Greek banks are entirely reliant on the ECB for liquidity, they would become insolvent as soon as the money stopped flowing. The Greek government would have no choice but to create new banks, with substantial government involvement. Iceland was forced to do this during the financial crisis: it created three new banks from the ruins of the old bankrupt lenders.

4. Salida en masa de griegos hacia las fronteras:

The Argentinian example shows that a Greek debt default and exit from the eurozone are likely to have dire economic and social consequences, at least in the short term.

…In Argentina’s case, the largest ever sovereign bankruptcy – defaulting on $93bn of foreign debt – triggered a 60% fall in domestic consumption as household savings were wiped out and inflation rose.

The depreciation of the new currency will make imported goods more expensive and drive up inflation. Mass unemployment is likely, as is an exodus of young skilled workers. If tens of thousands of Greeks headed to the borders, they might even be closed.

5. La onda de choque se expande:

Holders of Greek government debt would undoubtedly suffer, as they risk having their assets redenominated into a rapidly falling new Greek currency – as would holders of Greek corporate debt… Then, of course, there is the cost of bolstering the other vulnerable nations – such as Portugal and Spain – which the Institute of International Finance has recently estimated could run to €1 trillion. This burden would fall on the taxpayers of the remaining 16 eurozone states.

Once the precedent of a country leaving the eurozone is established, stability and confidence in the rest of the currency bloc would be shot to pieces and in all likelihood send it back into recession. “We have long held the view that, following the departure of just one member, a total breakup would be very much on the cards,” says Fathom Consulting.

Negociaciones estancadas en Grecia

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Las negociaciones entre los partidos griegos no han llegado a un acuerdo, y se ve cada vez menos probable que un gobierno se forme en este momento (Kathimerini). Mientras tanto, algunos banqueros centrales y otros líderes europeos están hablando abiertamente de la posibilidad de que Grecia abandone la unión monetaria (FT y Reuters).

Kathimerini sobre las negociaciones estancadas:

Greece’s political deadlock looked set to continue for a second week as President Karolos Papoulias failed to secure agreement on a unity government and avert new elections with the country heading toward a possible exit from the euro area.

Greece’s biggest anti-bailout party, SYRIZA, defied overtures to join the government Sunday, deepening the impasse. Leader Alexis Tsipras won’t attend a new meeting called by Papoulias Monday…

PASOK, New Democracy and Democratic Left agreed last week on a government that would last until 2014 and be committed to keeping the country in the euro region and renegotiating bailout conditions from the International Monetary Fund and European Union to boost growth. SYRIZA’s Tsipras turned down the approach on May 11 as the first opinion polls since the elections showed he was gaining in support.

Democratic Left has said that SYRIZA, the second-biggest party, must be part of its proposed unity government, or give it tacit support at least, if the government is to succeed in its task. The position has been adopted by PASOK and New Democracy.

Financial Times y Reuters reportan que algunos banqueros centrales y otros líderes europeos están hablando abiertamente de la posibilidad de que Grecia abandone la unión monetaria. Financial Times:

Eurozone central bankers have talked publicly for the first time of managing a possible Greek exit from Europe’s monetary union as stalemate in Athens talks on a coalition government raises the prospect that Greece will renege on the terms of its international bailout.

The comments by members of the European Central Bank’s governing council indicate that the risk of eurozone fragmentation is being taken increasingly seriously by the region’s policymakers.

They mark a significant shift at the ECB, which has previously argued that European treaties do not allow for an exit and that a break-up would cause incalculable economic damage.

Reuters:

Emboldened by a reinforced financial firewall to protect weak euro zone states, and by an injection of cheap money to banks from the European Central Bank, EU leaders have broken a taboo by openly discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone, stressing it is a choice for Greeks to make.

“We wish Greece will remain in the euro and we hope Greece will remain in the euro … but it must respect its commitments,” European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen told a regular news briefing.

“Greece has its future in its own hands and it is really up to Greece to see what the response should be.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, leader of the continent’s biggest and strongest economy, said it would be better for Greece to keep the euro. She also said EU leaders should help it recover – but added that such solidarity would cease in what she called the unlikely event of Athens reneging on agreements.

La Comisión Europea anticipa que España incumplirá sus metas

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

Comisión Europea anticipa que España incumplirá sus metas de déficit fiscal tanto en 2012 como 2013, y ofrecerá a España extender en un año el plazo para llegar a la meta de déficit de 3.0% (El Mundo, El País, FT).

El Mundo:

Las medidas de ajuste anunciadas por el Gobierno no van a ser suficientes para llevar a cabo la reducción del déficit a la que se ha comprometido España, según las previsiones que ha ofrecido la Comisión Europea y que auguran que este año el déficit se situará en el 6,4% del PIB y el próximo en el 6,3%.

… Para este año espera que la recesión sea del 1,8% (sus anteriores previsiones señalaban una caída del PIB del 1%) y para 2013 la economía española seguirá en negativo, con un descenso más moderado del 0,3%.

…El Gobierno central, según el informe presentado, sí cumplirá con las previsiones de recorte del déficit este año, por lo que el grueso del desvío se deberá a los problemas de las comunidades autónomas.

El País:

…Por este motivo, el vicepresidente del Ejecutivo comunitario, Olli Rehn, ha avanzado que pedirá medidas adicionales al Gobierno para reducir el desfase presupuestario para el próximo ejercicio.

Las previsiones conocidas esta mañana son aún peor que las que dio la Comisión en noviembre pasado, cuando vaticinaba un desfase del 5,9% para 2012. Entonces no se tuvo en cuenta ni la notable desviación presupuestaria de 2011 ni el inicio de otra recesión. Pero tampoco el enorme ajuste que ha planteado el Gobierno, a través del Presupuesto de 2012 y de recortes en sanidad y educación, para contrarrestar esa situación y llegar este año a la meta fijada del 5,3%.

Financial Times:

Spain will be offered more time to hit the budget deficit targets it agreed with the EU but only if Madrid meets new conditions, including an independent audit of the restructuring plan for its troubled banks.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, has insisted on the extra conditions – which include ensuring more fiscal control over Spain’s profligate regional governments – before allowing Madrid to delay its 2013 deficit target by a year.

Spanish officials insisted on Thursday that they were not seeking any delay to the deficit targets, seen by European leaders as an essential part of the eurozone’s strategy to resolve its financial crisis. EU officials said there were some members of the Spanish government, headed by Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, who were resisting the offer of leniency because they feared that investors would see it as evidence of creeping fiscal indiscipline. The government has pushed through €27bn in austerity measures.

…Spain has said it will intervene in any of its 17 autonomous regions that fail to meet their deficit reduction targets, which have been set a limit of 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product for this year. Spanish regions are due to present their budgets next week.

Lacker: gran parte del desempleo es estructural

Genevieve Signoret & Patrick Signoret

En un discurso el lunes, el presidente de la Fed de Richmond y miembro votante de la FOMC Jeffrey Lacker explicó por qué cree que una parte significativa del desempleo en EE UU es estructural y no cíclica. En consecuencia, no cree que la Fed deba llevar a cabo más estímulo monetario para reducir la tasa de desempleo. (La Fed de Atlanta, en su macroblog, vincula a varias perspectivas y análisis alternativos sobre este tema, incluyendo este de Brad DeLong.)

Jeffrey Lacker (negritas son nuestras):

Many economists have tried to determine the extent to which elevated unemployment reflects a broad deficiency in spending, which presumably could be offset through monetary policy stimulus or instead reflects changes in economic fundamentals, such as the decline of certain industries, changing technologies or demographic shifts. Sometimes the former is referred to as “cyclical unemployment,” and the latter is referred to as “structural unemployment.” But these terms can be quite misleading because cyclical downturns are often associated with substantial shifts across economic sectors. Indeed, the proximate cause of the last recession was a collapse in residential construction and related industries, which have yet to recover and are unlikely to recover fully anytime soon, given the substantial remaining overhang in housing inventory. The broader point to bear in mind is that recoveries are not always the mirror image of the contraction that preceded them.

While quantifying the contributions to unemployment of structural economic factors versus spending is quite difficult, our sense is that structural factors are playing a considerable role. As I mentioned earlier, we have heard from a number of employers who are having trouble hiring, despite the large pool of unemployed workers, and surveys by other Reserve Banks have reported this same finding. This suggests that there is some degree of “mismatch” between the skills demanded by employers and the skills available in the pool of potential workers.

This mismatch argument is not based solely on anecdotes, though. One broad quantitative measure of mismatch comes from what’s called “the Beveridge curve,” which refers to the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. [...] At present, however, both the unemployment and vacancy rates are relatively high, which suggests that unemployed workers are not finding jobs as rapidly as usual, despite the large number of open positions. This apparent outward shift in the Beveridge curve suggests that labor markets have become less effective at matching workers and vacancies. Empirical estimates suggest that this reduced efficiency could account for between ½ and 1-½ percentage points of unemployment.

[...]What does the preceding discussion suggest about possible policy responses to current labor market conditions? One standard option is to increase unemployment insurance benefits in order to offset households’ loss of purchasing power. [...] It’s worth pointing out, however, that as beneficial as such insurance programs can be, they also can affect the incentives to look for work or accept employment offers. Thus, they may actually increase the unemployment rate and the duration of unemployment. [...] Recent estimates suggest that between 0.8 and 1.7 percentage points of elevated unemployment may be attributable to extended unemployment benefit programs.

It’s worth noting, by the way, that the effects of unemployment insurance benefits together with the effects of labor market inefficiencies could plausibly account for a quite substantial portion of our elevated unemployment rate. [...]. We shouldn’t necessarily assume these effects are additive, but combining all three together yields a range of 2.9 to 5.9 percentage points, which is sizable relative to the increase in the total unemployment rate of 5-½ percentage points during the recession.

Another option is accommodative monetary policy in an effort to boost aggregate spending. The Fed has kept its target for the federal funds rate at between zero and 25 basis points since the end of 2008 and has engaged in a variety of asset purchase programs in an effort to provide additional stimulus to the economy. Some commentators are urging the Fed to take additional action as long as the unemployment rate remains elevated. But if elevated unemployment reflects largely fundamental factors rather than insufficient spending, such stimulus might have little impact on unemployment and instead just raise the risk of pushing inflation up.

The notion that skills mismatch is constraining labor market improvements suggests a third policy approach: investing in job training and education. While perhaps not a quick resolution to the current unemployment problem, I believe such investments are likely to yield greater benefits for both workers and the economy as a whole than efforts aimed at providing short-term stimulus.